"I am getting an impression the conservatives have gone so far that they might be determined to risk the coalition in the hope that the liberal centrists will back down and stay," the associate professor of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of Vilnius University told BNS on Friday.
His comments followed the Lithuanian parliament's Anti-Corruption Commission's proposal earlier on Friday on reinstating the sacked director of the Financial Crime Investigation Service, Vitalijus Gailius, and his deputy Vytautas Giržadas, expressing mistrust in Interior Minister Raimundas Palaitis and urging to dismiss Deputy Prosecutor General Darius Raulušaitis.
Girnius believes the resignation of Minister of Interior Affairs Raimundas Palaits, delegated by the liberal centrists, would be the best solution for the conservatives. But the liberal centrists might not be willing to risk their reputation.
"It would be ideal for the conservatives if it was agreed that Palaitis leaves, and the coalition remains, if the liberal centrists approved Palaitis' resignation. But it's difficult for the liberal centrists to decide on that as it would cast a shadow on the party ahead of the general elections, especially following suggestions that Palaitis sacked those officials as they were carrying out investigations into the liberal centrists' shadowy relations with the business," the political scientist said.
But there's a chance, in his opinion, that the liberal centrists might decide that "Palaitis costs them too much" and might sacrifice him.
"I believe this game will go on for some time as the prime minister is asking, and the liberal centrists are refusing, and the question arises whether the conservatives are ready to risk the coalition ahead of the elections without having implemented their plans, especially in the sphere of energy," Girnius said.
In his opinion, "there's higher chance" than ever before of the coalition collapsing, as the conservatives have clearly expressed their distrust in Palaitis, and if the minister still remains, questions will arise regarding "the conservatives' and the prime minister's sincerity." On the other hand, the liberal centrists would leave the coalition if it was beneficial for them, Girnius said.
The expert also believes the Anti-Corruption Commission's conclusions have done damage to President Dalia Grybauskaitė's relations with the government and the Parliament.
"The Commissions concludes that by giving specific orders to institutions directly unaccountable to the president, the president or representatives potentially violate the principle of separation of powers and principles of a democratic state, embodied in the Lithuanian Constitution," the conclusions state.
"The conclusions are rather unfavourable to the president, and she will not be happy with talks about potential constitutional violations. In this case one might ask if the Commission did not exceeded its competence," Girnius said.
He nevertheless believes the president would not comment on the conclusions.
"Judging by her stance over the last 10 days, I believe there will be no comments, and some more specific law enforcement conclusions will be awaited. But this is the first time the President is put under such pressure," the political scientist said.
Palaitis sacked two top officials in charge of financial crimes investigation, director Vitalijus Gailius and his deputy Vytautas Girzadas, on 15 February due to information received from the State Security Department, which had conducted a probe in response to the prosecutor general's request into leak of information about Snoras commercial bank. The minister had earlier revoked Gailius and Giržadas' access to classified information.
The Lithuanian president has said the minister acted according to the law, and Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius has stated the dismissal was hasty and unfounded.
Lithuania's ruling Coalition for Changes includes three parties: Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats, Liberal Movement and Liberal and Center Union.
