The merged parties would get a quantitative advantage in the ruling center-left coalition and would have more representatives than the currently dominant Social Democratic Party.
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| VU TSPMI nuotr./Alvidas Lukošaitis |
Alvidas Lukošaitis of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University says the merger might lead to changes in the Cabinet and relations with the president.
"Such things usually leave a trace in traditional democratic and proved systems. There should be a reshuffling of positions, posts, portfolios etc. But our system is not very traditional, therefore, it is hard to say what it would mean. It would mean a new headache to very serious participants, figures of the political process, if the issue of a reshuffle in the political majority and the coalition government were raised," the expert believes.
Another lecture of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Tomas Janeliūnas, concurs. In his words, the coalition agreement might need a review following the party merger.
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| Irmanto Gelūno/15min.lt nuotr./Politologas T.Janeliūnas |
"This mathematical thing might change the entire coalition. The coalition agreement might need reviewing, and the merged party, which would have more votes in the Seimas than any other, might lay claim to the post of prime minister. (...) Based on new votes in the Seimas, the whole composition of the coalition would need changing. In this case we might only guess whether the Social Democrats will agree to such demands. I am afraid it might lead to a collapse of the entire coalition," the political scientist said.
In Lukošaitis' view, the party merger would be unprecedented and "really would not be similar to the merger of the Democratic Labor Party and the Social Democrats, not similar to the merger of the Homeland Union and the Lithuanian Christian Democrats and all other similar smaller mergers."
He notes that organizations of both the Labor Party and the Order and Justice Party are based on one-man authority, they do not refrain from populism, they lack responsibility before voters.
Janeliūnas believes the Labor Party's fraudulent bookkeeping case might also have something to do with the merger.
"If it's an initiative of the Labor Party, it might inevitably be related to the future outcome of the Labor Party's case, and in this sense, it might be the case that attempts are being made to strengthen political positions, to build a certain barrier, back-up over potentially unfavorable court rulings. In political terms, it might be the motive," he said.
Thhe reason that motivates the Order and Justice Party to merge, Janeliūnas believes, might be a wish to strengthen the party's position in the ruling coalition after relatively unsuccessful elections.
The Order and Justice Party has now 10 seats in the Seimas and the Labor Party has 29. The ruling Social Democratic Party is represented by 38 members.
